Blog #162 Conservatism Rise, Blue Cities go Bust, Lessons
Some argue that certain "blue cities," particularly those with strong Democratic leadership, are facing challenges such as high cost of living, rising crime rates, and population decline, despite generally rebounding from the pandemic. These issues are often attributed to specific policies and governance approaches favored in these cities.
Here's a more detailed look at the arguments:
1. High Cost of Living:
Housing Costs:
Blue cities, especially those with strong job markets like Seattle, Portland, and Boston, have faced significant housing shortages and high costs. This is partly due to a long-term failure to build enough housing to meet demand, and partly due to policies that restrict development.
Overall Expenses:
The cost of living, including housing and utilities, tends to be higher in blue states compared to red or purple states.
2. Rising Crime Rates:
Some argue that certain criminal justice reforms enacted in blue cities, like those in Washington, D.C., have emboldened criminals and reduced police effectiveness.
A report by The Heritage Foundation highlighted that a disproportionate number of cities with the highest murder rates are led by Democratic mayors.
3. Population Decline:
While some cities have seen a rebound in population after the initial pandemic exodus, some major blue cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia continue to have lower populations than before 2020.
This population decline is linked to concerns about the quality of life and affordability, which are seen as indicators of effective local governance.
4. Policy Responses:
Shifting Priorities:
Some blue cities are beginning to shift towards more conservative approaches to crime, including tougher penalties and expanded police powers, as a response to constituent concerns.
Examples:
Washington, D.C., is cited as an example of a blue city that recently passed a major criminal justice package to address crime problems.
In essence, the argument is that certain policies and governance models prevalent in blue cities are contributing to these challenges, leading to a decline in quality of life and driving some residents to seek more affordable or safer environments elsewhere.
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Broken cities, bad governance: Blue state city residents voting with their feet
Americans have given a negative Census report card to some of our biggest cities
Published May 22, 2025 5:00am EDT | Updated May 22, 2025 5:42am EDT
On the surface, newly-released data from the Census Bureau looks to be good news for big cities. In the wake of the Covid panic that drove residents to the suburbs and beyond, city populations generally rebounded. "Cities of all sizes grew on average from 2023 to 2024," the Bureau reported. "Cities of all sizes, in all regions, showed faster growth and larger gains".
The number – 94 percent of cities showing population growth – is impressive, overall. But a closer look tells another story – about some of the largest "blue" state cities, governed by Democratic mayors. New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia continue to have lower populations than in 2020. New York City has had the largest drop – from 8.805 million to 8.478 million, or 3.7 percent. Philadelphia’s population has fallen by 1.9 percent; Chicago’s by 1 percent, and LA’s by .5 percent.
An even slightly-closer look at these cities’ quality of life and affordability – factors that are the function of the effectiveness of their local governments – offers explanations for the trend.
THE LEFT'S HOMELESS PLANS WRECKED OUR CITIES. NOW HELP MAY COME FROM AN UNEXPECTED SOURCE
Housing costs in New York, according to the national tracking service RentCafe, are 21.8 percent higher than the national average – despite the fact that the city has more price-regulated and public housing than any other. Low turnover rates in the nearly 1 million rent-stabilized apartments help drive up the price of the remaining market-rate housing, as city residents play a costly game of housing musical chairs, with those not able to get apartments priced artificially low forced to pay more. Where is housing cheaper? Look to Houston, which has gained 3.9 percent in population. Its housing costs are the mirror image of New York City’s – 21 percent lower than the national average. Not surprisingly, Houston’s population, per the Census, is 3.9 percent higher than it was in 2020.
To explain Chicago’s population loss, look to its crime rate. The Windy City last year led the nation in murders – 653 – almost twice the number of Baltimore, the city with the second-highest number. Instances of gang violence have spread from the low-income South Side to the "miracle mile" of downtown’s Michigan Avenue. Yet for the privilege of being subjected to high crime, Chicagoans have paid more and more – and more – in property taxes. As the civic group Chicago Federation reports, between 2014 and 2024, Chicago increased its property taxes by $2.7 billion, or 53.3 percent, compared to an inflation rate of 35 percent. The separate property tax levied by the Chicago Public School (CPS) district, increased $1.4 billion, from $2.4 to $3.8 billion. Yet, according to the Illinois Policy Institute, "in spring 2024, 30.5% of CPS students in third through eighth grade met proficiency standards in reading and 18.3% were proficient in math." A 2022 report found that, in 55 Chicago public schools, zero percent of students were proficient in either.
Los Angeles, another population loser, stands out on another measure: street homelessness, as exemplified by the tent encampments in its Skid Row area. The city’s 71,000 homeless constitute, per the Brookings Institution, 670 for every 100,000 residents. Even more notably, 70 percent of LA’s homeless, some 472 per 100K are "unsheltered", higher than any major city except San Jose—which is also among the few cities with lower populations than in 2020. It’s no wonder that California Governor Gavin Newsom, with his eye on higher office, has moved to ban street encampments in the state.
The other population-losing cities have their own versions of the same stories. Philadelphia ranks among the homelessness leaders, with 18 percent of the homeless among the "unsheltered", the highest number among cities in the Northeast. The unsheltered homeless rate in San Jose, down 1.6 percent in population, stands at 77 percent, the nation’s highest.
It's fair to argue that the combination of mild weather and air-conditioning, over the long term, has lured Americans from the Northeast and Midwest to the Sunbelt. But the new Census data shines a light on what’s happening right now, as cities even in California as well as the Rust Belt and the Northeast, fail to recover their pre-Covid population levels. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that ineffective governance has played a role; crime and homelessness, high tax levels and poor-performing public schools are not magnets to draw back former residents or draw in new ones. The fact that all the population-losing cities are run by Democratic mayors helped Donald Trump win the popular vote; even in New York City he ran better than he had in 2020.
Cities can be the engines of economic innovation and prosperity. But not if local government fails to provide effective essential services. Americans have given a negative Census report card on just those services, delivered to some of our largest cities.
Howard Husock is the author of "The Poor Side of Town: And Why We Need It" (Encounter Books). He is a senior fellow in domestic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. He served on the Board of Directors of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting from 2013-17.
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Inside Scoop: Rise of the Conservative Commentator, Blue-state cities go bust, lessons from WWII
Jim Antle, the magazine’s executive editor, brings to life the pages of the Washington Examiner magazine in the show Inside Scoop. Each episode features exclusive insight from the article authors and expert analysis.
Antle gives his analysis on the men who gave rise to modern conservative commentators and whether their views are still prominent today. Before Fox News, before Washington Examiner, and before Rush Limbaugh, William F. Buckley Jr. spearheaded the development of modern American conservatism.
“Buckley was known for his wit, his intellect, his ability to speak to hostile audiences,” Antle said.
Buckley’s collaboration with Frank Meyer blended economic and social conservatism, which shaped politics from the 1960s to the 1980s, including Ronald Reagan’s presidency.
“Reagan, Buckley, and Meyer still leave a lasting imprint on conservative politics today,” Antle said, adding things seem to be changing with a new head of the party. “President Donald Trump is seen as a figure shaking up the modern American Conservative Movement once again.”
Next on the show, Antle sits down with Washington Examiner’s commentary editor Conn Carroll to discuss the cover article on why blue-state cities are failing. The article was inspired by a chart regularly published by Brookings, the liberal think tank.
“The point of this chart is to try to undercut whenever a Republican wins,” Carroll said. “To say, all of the GDP in the country is really produced by the smart, hip, progressive, democratic areas.”
However, Carroll notes if the same chart is compared by state, it spells out a very different story. Big states, like Texas and Florida, are producing tons of GDP along with California and New York.
“It would be much more even,” Carroll explains. “But when you look at the cities that are in blue states, those cities are falling behind, and it’s the cities in red states that are really succeeding.”
Carroll attributed the cities in blue states stagnation to high costs of living, lack of job growth, and poor public order.
“New York and Los Angeles have actually lost population over the last 10 years,” Carroll said. “Red states, as I mentioned, have all been growing by 10%, 15%, 20%.”
Our in-depth report this week examines what the last world war tells us about the next one. The Second World War ended eight decades ago this summer, but its specter looms large today. The war ended empires, upended the global order, and changed the course of the 20th century. Eighty years later, it still has much to teach us.
To a great extent, the failure to predict war is a failure of imagination. Both Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iranian proxies attacking Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, are evidence of America’s collapsed deterrence and intelligence.
“The anniversary of the end of World War II should serve as a reminder of the costs of great powers in conflict,” Sean Durns writes. “Let us hope that we never have to pay them again. But let’s do so knowing that hope itself isn’t a strategy. On that much, history is clear.”